Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Whimsy Store Championship
decks
3
(10.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
8-4-3
overall winrate
63.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.2%
avg ELO +4.6 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1413
· median 1448
· range 1305–1487
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1290
Q3 1470
1642
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Water Overlord | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Wind Exia | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.6 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.6 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Neos | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Polkhawk | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
